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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd